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A susceptibility assessment for hydropower generation in the Magdalena River Basin was performed, using rainfall as a natural stressor. Climate variability was analyzed through bootstrapping, and climate change was incorporated by reducing rainfall values by specific percentages. Energy production was then modeled with the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning) tool based on these climate scenarios. The results were compared to historical energy output and energy ratios under stress tests. The purpose of this assessment is not to forecast weather patterns but to examine potential climate scenarios through stress testing.

Next the Level Of Concern was determined by assessing impacts, plausibility, and uncertainty. Impacts depend on performance metric thresholds, plausibility is based on the likelihood of variable ranges, and uncertainty reflects the quality of the data used in the analysis. All three natural drivers have high plausibility, placing them on the right of the figure. However, their impacts differ significantly: climate change presents a high future risk, climate variability a medium/high risk, and sediment retention a medium risk, as also shown in the stress test results. Lastly the Decision Matrix incorporates analytical uncertainty. Climate change presents high risk, recommending robust and flexible actions, while climate variability suggests slightly more robust solutions. Sediment retention poses lower risk, requiring standard planning. The Decision Matrix helps guide future planning strategies based on risk and uncertainty.