Resilient Water and Energy Supply for Zambia’s Capital in the Face of Drought
Lusaka’s power grid is wholly dependent on water through regional hydropower dams. This makes the well-being of Lusaka’s inhabitants highly vulnerable to worsening droughts.
Context
Lusaka, the capital city of Zambia, is in a drought prone region of southern Africa. The two million residents are dependent on a network of shallow aquifers and the Kafue River, the latter providing 40% of the city’s water supply. Moreover, the city's power supply relies entirely on water from nearby hydropower dams, which makes Lusaka's residents particularly susceptible to the impacts of increasing droughts.
Lusaka's climatic future is here. Droughts and governance issues from 2016–2018 caused daily blackouts lasting over 12 hours, increasing household costs and worsening public health.
Actions
The team first focused on determining whether power shortages or low river flow were causing performance losses during droughts. The Lusaka-based team helped collect data and connect with stakeholders. Analysis revealed that energy availability was the main issue, as it took significant power to pump water to the city. Water availability wasn’t a concern since the wells were deep enough to handle drought conditions. This shift in understanding led the team to concentrate on addressing energy supply challenges.
Next, a risk analysis was conducted, factoring in uncertainty and impact. Given limited data and high community stakes, CRIDA recommended flexible solutions that could be adapted as conditions changed. The team then modeled three adaptation actions: expanding city storage, adding diesel generators for pumps, and securing a power agreement to prioritize the plant. The adaptation pathways evaluation showed that the diesel generators and power agreement, already being pursued, would be enough to prevent shortages and stabilize the system.
Outcomes
The CRIDA case resulted in a clear, actionable solution to mitigate energy shortages for Lusaka's water supply. By using Incremental Cost Analysis and comparing different solutions against future climate scenarios, the team linked cost to the long-term robustness of the Iolanda plant. The analysis revealed that providing diesel generators immediately wasn’t necessary. Instead, the team recommended amending the existing construction contract to include generator pads and connections to high-lift pumps, with the utility purchasing the generators later based on their own budget planning. This approach was cost-effective and aligned with the utility's financial policies.
The outcome was significant: the implementation team was able to quickly develop a well-supported solution in just a few months. Stakeholders—including the donor, implementers, and asset owners—understood and supported the approach, ensuring continued service delivery in Lusaka despite a changing climate. The CRIDA methodology facilitated this efficient decision-making process and helped secure the utility’s commitment to sustainable, flexible solutions.